Imrecon

31 July 2009 - Provisional UK GDP figures for the second quarter of 2009 were announced last week and the CAA has also published provisional passenger data at UK airports for June 2009.  The new data allow me to update my comments after Q1.  The new data give a strikingly different picture.

Up to the end of Q1, the reductions in airport passenger numbers appreared to be substantially more rapid than the falls in GDP.  I noted that the annual rate of reduction in February and March across the UK were around 14-15%, compared with a drop in GDP of some 4.2%.

National Statistics has revised its estimates of GDP for Q1 to show a Q1 2009 reduction compared with Q1 2008 of some 4.9%, and a further 0.8% drop in Q2.  GDP for Q2 2009 is now some 5.6% lower than Q2 2008.

Meanwhile, after especially low passenger numbers in February and March, the data for Q2 is not quite so depressing.  Against the same months a year before, passengers are lower by only around 8%, as shown in the following chart.

The relative recovery (which may be overstating it somewhat) appears to be strongest at the larger airports.  Some of the smaller airports, and also London City, are showing further deterioration.  Is this evidence of airlines consolidating their activities?

Ian Rowson
31 July 2009